Meanwhile there’s a lot of great material on the minimum wage coming out. Jared Bernstein addresses four of the key arguments for the minimum wage here. John Schmitt of CEPR has a great overview on the various theories on why a minimum wage hike shows little or not impact on unemployment here (wonkblog summary here).
I still notice many people arguing that we should just raise the earned income tax credit (EITC) for the working poor rather than raising the minimum wage. I brought it up in the interview, but it is worth mentioning again here, even in loud, bold text:
The EITC partially subsidizes employers, and as such the minimum wage is an excellent way to combat this. So it complements, rather than substitutes, for an EITC.
Economists love to tell people that who pays a tax is independent of who Congress wants to pay it. The “Tax These Evil Corporations Act” might fall entirely on people buying stuff from those firms instead of their shareholders. (If you like the jargon, economists say the tax incidence is independent of legislative intent.)
But suddenly when the tax is a tax credit, specifically an earned income tax credit, that tax magically goes exactly where Congress wants it to go. Technically it means that economists just assume that demand is perfectly elastic in low-wage markets, which is a bold assumption. If not, part of the tax is passed on, in this case to employers, who capture it in the form of lower wages. And since those who get the EITC are in the same labor market as those who don’t, these wage declines extend to people who don’t even get the EITC! Jesse Rothstein did an estimate finding that for every dollar of EITC, a worker’s wage only goes up 73 cents. That’s a big capture by employers.
If you want some elaborate theory, David Lee and Emmanuel Saez have a paper arguing that when this is the case (and if the EITC works primarily by bringing people into working, via an extensive margin, which it does), the minimum wage is an excellent complement to low-wage government transfers tied to work.
Or as Dube says, “We have different polices designed for different distributional goals. We need to think not in terms of a single policy, but instead think in terms of what is the right portfolio of policies given the range of objectives you have.” The minimum wage is an excellent tool to boost the efficacy of government transfers, and it should be raised and tied to a cost of living raise. There’s no magic bullets – there’s just a variety of tools that reinforce each other.