Betting on Real-World Events Will Break Down Public Trust

The corrupting effects of prediction markets 

The 2026 men’s FIFA World Cup has come and gone, but betting companies like Kalshi and Polymarket, which ran ads throughout the tournament, aren’t going anywhere. These platforms’ growing entanglement with real-world events is breaking down public trust, Brad Lipton and Toyosi Odusola argue in the second installment of Roosevelt’s series on prediction markets.

The headlines are everywhere, from a White House teleprompter operator betting on President Trump’s speeches to a soldier allegedly using confidential military information to bet on the January abduction of Venezuelan president, Nicolás Maduro. “The more people hear about insider trading, the more they will have doubts about the motivations of people making important decisions in our society,” Lipton and Odusola write.

“Policymakers should evaluate competing proposals on their ability not only to protect individuals from financial loss, but to protect real-world events from manipulation and restore public trust in institutions.”

Read the blog post: How Prediction Markets Are Shaping Real-World Events and Eroding Public Trust

And stay up to date with the entire series: The Hidden House: Prediction Markets and How They’re Shaping Society

What else we’re up to

• Help us shape the future of AI policy: Roosevelt is partnering with Data & Society to recruit the next cohort of Good Life Residents, who will work together with expert advisors to develop policy visions about AI and finance.
  • As enormous investment in generative AI technology distorts the economy and further concentrates extreme wealth, what market-shaping tools should the federal government use to ensure democratic control, shared prosperity, and robust workers’ rights?
  • Applications are due August 12.
• These future policymakers have bold answers to big questions. What would be the benefits of a publicly-owned agricultural supply chain? How have organized nurses led the way in bargaining over AI technology in the workplace? How should a state-level guaranteed income program be designed?
  • University students explore these questions and more in a new set of policy papers from the Roosevelt Network’s Emerging Fellowship, a research and writing program for undergraduates interested in economics and policy.
  • Read the collection: ​​Bold Ideas, Emerging Leaders: Roosevelt Network Emerging Fellows Journal 2026
• “The reason the rent is too damn high is because Wall Street is counting on it.” Rental housing in the US is increasingly treated as a speculative financial asset, making rent regulation an important form of financial regulation that can stabilize the economy, Roosevelt Fellow Anisha Steephen argues in TIME magazine.
  • Dive deeper in Steephen’s recent Roosevelt brief: Rent Regulation as Financial Regulation
• Trump accounts, the investment vehicles for kids created last year, will only widen the wealth gap. Roosevelt Institute Senior Fellow Darrick Hamilton explains in Fortune magazine how the government’s initial $1,000 contribution will only grow as much as families are able to add: “A household able to invest several thousand dollars each year for 18 years will accumulate dramatically more than one struggling to pay rent, buy groceries, or cover child care,” he writes.
• “The American consumer economy can no longer run on fossil fuels.” Roosevelt Fellow Daniel Driscoll argues in Project Syndicate that economic growth needs to be driven by renewable energy.
  • In a recent Roosevelt brief, Driscoll explains what principles government should keep in mind when decarbonizing the economy: The Four Pillars of Green State Capacity

What we’re talking about